Weekly Distillation No.15
AI dogfight; Coronavirus; Blockchain; Uber; Asset Inflation; Schools; Calendars; Social Media; Gin Liqueur
Photo by Chris Liverani on Unsplash
This newsletter is written for entrepreneurial organisational leaders and aims to help identify themes of our current context and provide questions, tips and tools that can help in navigating that.
“I began riding my bike to work and went to Whole Foods and bought a bunch of rice and beans, went into hibernation mode and it was one of the most creative moments of my life,” Mr Bhatt said in 2018. “I just stopped caring if I failed.” - Financial Times on Robinhood
"We should plan on the basis we will not have a vaccine and then if one does prove to be effective and safe and available then we're in a strong position to be able to use it and that will be great but we should be planning on the basis of what we currently have." - Chris Whitty, England’s Chief Medical Officer
"One of them had him in a headlock and was punching him in his ribs, the other had him in a headlock on the other side of him and was pulling his arm" - Raysean White re Jacob Blake shooting
“Musicians and journalists are the canaries in the coalmine, but, eventually, as computers get more and more powerful, it will kill off all middle-class professions.” - Jaron Lanier
“Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline.” - National Hurricane Centre
Skim it in a minute
Thematic insights from the news and the web to help you think about potential future and current contexts and how to be productive, creative and successful in your work now
Coronavirus
Photo by Kutan Ural on Unsplash
Schools in Scotland started sending children home this week to get tested for Coronavirus if they had shown signs of a cough, a cold or a high temperature. Unsurprisingly, as autumnal rains have started and children are doing more outdoor play in a damp climate, as well as having left their bio-secure bubble of the last few months, colds and minor ailments are rampant and children are being yanked out of classes and sent home on a frequent basis. One of two things will happen - the standards will lower, or schools will be shut again soon - my guess is if we make it to the school holidays in mid October we’ll be doing well.
“Scottish numbers: 27 August 2020
68 new confirmed cases of COVID-19; this is 0.4% of newly tested individuals.
0 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive.
2 people were in intensive care last night with confirmed COVID-19.
257 people were in hospital with confirmed COVID-19.
28,800 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results.” - Scottish Government
Did you know you are probably changing your circle of friends as a result of Covid19? We’re also continuing to turn our city centres into ghost towns.
The bigger news on Coronavirus this week was the person who got reinfected - that opens up a whole new ballgame doesn’t it? Vaccines seem to be inching closer but even with the Oxford vaccine, the timeline being discussed is “hopefully before winter 2021”. This is a marathon, not a sprint, and that’s why I am trying to enjoy the moment rather than focus on what the next change to restrictions are as that is completely out of my control.
One interesting debate that keeps popping up is how distant do you need to be to be safe? One metre? Six metres? The British Medical Journal opined on this here where they argue against rigid distance rules and instead use more contextualised approaches.
And finally on this theme, apparently 10 countries in the world kept out Covid - but at what cost?
How technology is changing our future
Photo by Austin Distel on Unsplash
This week an AI system beat an F16 pilot in an aerial dogfight. It’s not the Gary Kasparov moment when Deep Blue won at chess, in particular as the F16 pilot was not allowed to use heat seeking missiles and could only use front facing cannon. Not having a human pilot and being able to pull far greater G forces is one simple example of how AI will begin to transform every field we live and work in. Here’s one person’s view on 6 AI systems we should never build.
Looking for a new job? Want to be the resort manager for a SpaceX resort?
There’s a growing backlash against the utility of Blockchain as a technology. This encourages me as it feels we might be entering Gartner’s trough of disillusionment, which is usually followed by rapid widescale adoption.
Uber came across the radar a few times this week. It’s a service I have never used - my aversion to the way Travis Kalanick built and ran the business - even now he’s gone, I have my doubts as to the values it lives by. A quick recap on what the newsflow has been:
It had a toxic workplace culture apparently
Women experienced sexual harassment and faced 6000 sexual assault reports in just 2 years in its broader business
They were considered to be “pandemic profiteering”
They employed people to book fake rides on competitor’s apps
A hack that leaked the data of 57m people was covered up
They treated their drivers as contractors but courts are starting to rule differently which has led to Uber temporarily closing down in California
They deceived law enforcement with a secret tool called Greyball
They had a legal dispute with Alphabet about the alleged theft of trade secrets
One of their own major investors led a campaign to get Travis replaced as CEO
That doesn’t mean that Uber is a complete disaster - there is much to admire in its technology, its business model and the actual customer offering. This is a great thread on how they went about building it and can provide tips to any leader looking to start or scale a venture or project. But even still, I want the tech companies I support to not be flagrant examples of poor values.
What do you think about digital calendar links? I can see the efficiency appeal but I also understand that they can come across as arrogant.
The Tony Blair Institute wrote a piece this week on how the left should approach technology - an interesting longer thought piece that may inspire and offend in equal measure!"
The future of work
Photo by Rishabh Sharma on Unsplash
WIRED wrote on why the future of media is all about newsletters - I think of newsletters as replacing your newspaper or magazine, and podcasts as replacing the radio listen. I see value accruing in two places - the curator (because there is too much noise) and the specialist creator (who creates the niche that people will pay for). Telling good stories is always a winner. Obviously there is then value in the ancilliary platforms such as Substack.
We are in an asset inflation bubble
These are strange times. I was on a Zoom call this week where someone lifted up a cardboard box at their feet and showed me several bars of silver they had bought recently. We’ve just hit new highs on US stock market indices. With the economy in recovery, the growth in tech leading to a massive divergence between the digital company valuations and the traditional economy where it is not digitised, there is some justification for stock market optimism. However, the vast amounts of funds flowing in via QE has to be playing its part too. Is WFH affecting the market too?
To remove the debt burden our countries are in you can 1) repay it which is long and politically painful 2) default on it (but with the deficits the West runs, this would close off cheap money for some time) or inflate the economy so the debt becomes a smaller part of the economy. The continued assumption of many is that 3 will be the answer - hence the rise of crypto & gold. Holding cash has been a losing strategy for more than a decade apart from rare periods.
I’ve written on Robinhood a few times. Today I met someone who had applied for a job with them. We had a good discussion on the merits of it as a platform. This profile covers the founders of what is now a business valued at $11bn (or “11 yards” in hedge fund parlance).
Crowdcube in the UK has developed a clever product enabling early shareholders in privately held companies to trade out of their historically illiquid shares. Obviously the other side of that is does it enable the unsophisticated retail investor access to privately held companies they have little visibility on? One aspect of prices rising and thus available returns falling is that you search further and wider for good investments - this tends to lead you, as in my case in years gone by, to invest in things like Singaporean shipyards you know very little about (based on a great theme about oil rigs…), or Korean car manufacturers where you don’t foresee the upcoming strike by the labour force!
Alongside the successes, have some empathy for the person who sent $900m out of a bank by mistake. Ouch.
Reuters did a spoof announcement of their SPAC. (A SPAC is a special purpose acquisition company, or a “blank cheque company” which is formed by raising the funds to then make an acquisition of a business.
A long read for the weekend
This week’s long read is from GQ, a good piece with Jaron Lanier, author of “Ten Arguments for Deleting Your Social Media Accounts Right Now” as well as several other well regarded books. The merits and demerits of social media are pretty obvious currently and now that we are in the crazy season of American politics (you won’t be safe - the world will end - they’ll take your guns - NO they’ll take your healthcare - they hate you - no, they hate YOU), maybe deleting your social media account is the best step you can take.
The other weekly distillation
“the action of purifying a liquid by a process of heating and cooling.”
“Edinburgh Gin infused with fresh Perthshire raspberries. Distinctively Scottish. Raspberry Infused Edinburgh Gin is made from a traditional family recipe using locally sourced raspberries, matured with Edinburgh Gin and pure cane sugar. This results in a delicious deep, tart raspberry flavour.” - The Gin Guild
This is the only alcoholic drink I have ever taken to the US, not just once but twice. I was heading out on a businesss trip and the first time it was taken (in a sufficiently small enough bottle to meet the customs regulations) as a gift. The second time the request was received “if you are coming, please can you bring some of the Edinburgh Gin Raspberyy Liqueur with you? We loved it”. This is a favourite of my wife’s also.
Wondering how to consume it? I was too the first time I drank it. Here’s the answer “wonderful with tonic, soda or lemonade, excellent in cocktails, with champagne of simply over ice.”
It’s not just it tastes of raspberries, it also contains pure cane sugar - I’d guess quite a lot of it given how much people enjoy drinking this. It’s got a summer feel to it - probably not one for the long dark winter nights, but definitely a BBQ drink to savour, or a long evening on the porch swing (if you have one of those!).
This is a drink that comes from Edinburgh Gin, a fantastic business that is now part of the family owned Ian Macleod Distillers. My Ian Macleod story relates to the last time I spoke with the Operations Director and made what I thought was a clever comment about Hearts only to learn he was a fan of the Hibs (aka the vermin) - definitely a foot in the mouth moment. On a serious note, Ian Macleod is a fantastic business that is the 10th largest Scotch Whisky company in the world.
The other aspect that is really interesting with Edinburgh Gin is how simple their brand was to develop. They had gin, they made it in Edinburgh - and they have a globally recognisable provenance with Edinburgh, and a say what it is with the Gin. I love the simplicity of the branding, the references to the city’s landscape and the modern feel. Edinburgh Gin always goes down well with friends when they are here. The backstory to the distillery is here. The Edinburgh Gin shop is here. Enjoy!
If you have a favourite spirit you’d like to write about, or you make spirits, please do get in touch as I’d love to share about them.
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