This newsletter is written for entrepreneurial leaders who want to learn about the moment we are living in but don’t have time to read broadly; who want to grasp the key themes; and who want to create better ways of advancing their mission. The Weekly Distillation covers a broad range of topics with the intent to curate the key narratives of the week, how they fit the broader themes of society and to pose questions that help you to think deeper on the application in your context. You can read more about the key themes I see here.
People once said………
“Nothing in life is to be feared, it is only to be understood. Now is the time to understand more, so that we may fear less.” - Marie Curie
“To one who has faith, no explanation is necessary. To one without faith, no explanation is possible.” - Thomas Aquinas
“We, the People, recognize that we have responsibilities as well as rights; that our destinies are bound together; that a freedom which only asks what's in it for me, a freedom without a commitment to others, a freedom without love or charity or duty or patriotism, is unworthy of our founding ideals, and those who died in their defense.” - Barack Obama
“Good habits formed at youth make all the difference.” - Aristotle
Skim it in a minute
Ukraine & Russia
The peace talk excitement in the press a week ago has moved to excitement of Biden in Europe (lots of noise, no meaningful substance) and proclamations that the Russians realise they have lost (because they have said Phase 1 is over (remember the US did this a lot in Afghanistan)). Three of the main battlegrounds seemed to be Mariupol (still under attack), the JFO area (Luhansk/Donetsk) which is still being attacked and Odesa (starting to be attacked but limited so far). If you are a journalist and focus on Kyiv, it all seems stalled - but elsewhere the refocus isn’t leading to much likelihood of things getting better at all. The likelihood is we’re settling in for a long war of attrition, which is probably the worst outcome for Ukraine.
Remember when Ukrainians kept saying #closetheskies? And the Western pundits and officials who said all of the attacks are from tanks and artillery and so closing the skies won’t help? But don’t worry, we’ll provide you defensive weapons (as if Russia would make a rational distinction between defensive and offensive weaponry). It seemed a nonsense excuse then and it seems even more so now. Russia is increasing its air sorties and cities are regularly being attacked from the air. As I write, more missiles are hitting the Western City of Lviv. NATO is trying to find ways to provide anti-aircraft systems but clearly isn’t sure how. And you can’t retake territory from Russia with defensive weapons. All of this pontificating is leading to more Ukrainian deaths, a drawn out war and ongoing risk of a greater war across Europe.
One area that was really interesting in the last week was the information wars. First, it turns out the Pentagon is basing its press briefings off what the Ukranian military is reporting as the reality on the ground. Hardly likely to be an unbiased source.
But also, analysis shows that Russia is focusing its cyber disinformation efforts on Africa, South America and India. Lo and behold there is much more debate on the merits of Russia in those countries than we have here - and that is reflected in the geopolitics too. Who says social media is a good thing for the world?
A Bull Case
It’s easy to ponder all of the things that are wrong in the world right now - wars, plagues, earthquakes, volcanoes, inflation, poverty, water shortages, climate crisis - the list goes on. We are good, in Western Society, at focusing on an immediate crisis but poor at a simmering one that brings material change over time. I even heard one person articulate this week that a dictator model of governance leads to better long term societies because they can make big decisions without worrying about electoral math. (And, I wanted to add, they also lead to ethnic cleansing, genocide and mass surveillance, suppression and fear).
I wrote in January (The Weekly Distillation No.56) about a bear case for 2022. It hasn’t all come to pass thankfully (yet), but there’s enough of it to believe that 2022 has started off much worse than 2020 or 2021. But is there a bull case? Might there be, as one of my friends in the US says, signs of life? I’ve been pondering what a bull case might be for 2022. Here are some thoughts:
Russia moves to peace talks and a stalemate is agreed in April, with all hostilities ceasing in May. In return, sanctions in critical supplies are eased, reducing the risk of major hostilities.
Central Banks see the impact that rising inflation is having on household income and discretionary spending and reduce both Quantitative Easing and their plans for interest rate increases.
As time passes in 2022, inflation peaks out. Oil and gas prices reduce as hostilities in Ukraine cease. Supply chains even themselves out and some firms re-shore factories, creating more industrial jobs in the West and reducing unemployment in heartland areas.
China doesn’t invade Taiwan.
North Korea tests more missiles but also enters negotiations and in return the US offers food assistance and a path back into the world. (The South Korean Government apparently now contains a lot of hawks on North Korea so this may be a big stretch).
Israel continues its “enemy of my enemy is my friend” and signs deals with many Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, thus reshaping the Middle East.
Decentralised finance is both sensibly regulated (giving confidence to the masses) but also rolled out quickly across many developing nations, increasing access to banking for the under-banked. Much wider adoption of crypto currencies, DApps, DAOs and NFTs in constructive and innovative ways.
Covid dissipates to being a mild cold and not even a meaningful threat to the immuno-suppressed. Concerns over winter 2022 don’t come to anything and no future nation wide steps need to be taken. We all stop talking about Covid.
With risk reducing, inflation slowing and interest rate curves less steep, stockmarkets rally. Companies invest, it remains easy to get a new job and employers need to invest in their employees and workplace culture to keep their people.
Hybrid working settles in and new rhythms of family, work, travel and creativity lead to a mass rise in passion projects, social impact initiatives, happier employees and more stable families.
Yes, I’m not sure I believe that can happen either! There is however value in assessing the contrarian viewpoint. There are definitely macro signs of hope, and at a micro level I have not seen as much innovation, momentum or early stage funding as there is in the business world currently. I have both a lot of optimism and also pessimism for the remainder of 2022.
In the wacky world of Web 3
If you work for a web 3 company, you can get paid in tokens. How does that work? Good luck to the excise teams working all of this into their systems.
The Australian Senate is waking up to DAOs and this week called them a potential existential risk to the tax base of Australia. Er, duh.
Grasping the tech stack of decentralised exchanges.
Pros and cons of ve tokens.
In the wonderful world of whisky
One of the biggest constraints in the whisky industry currently is the lack of warehousing. A recent development saw Glen Turner (owner of 25m LPA grain distillery, Starlaw) receive a minded-to-grant letter for 21 new warehouses (likely for their own use, rather than open to the market, knowing the scale of their ambitions as a business). This is one of several projects delivering warehouses and bottling lines in central Scotland - I’ve had a view for a while that this wasn’t a major constraint as warehouses (if you can get planning and the right site) are pretty easy to build and investors are always happy to fund that sort of development.
People are getting excited about seaweed. Some people think it could be as big as the whisky industry. I had a conversation with someone recently where I asked if you could ferment it and distill it. The answer was you probably could.
Got a Mother’s Day present yet (if you’re in the UK)? A female-founded whisky subscription service focused on whisky for mums offers a £14/month subscription. Great concept. Sign up here. (Not a sponsored post!)
Care leavers - I’d love your help
I’ve been reading and learning a bit this week about young people ageing out of the social care system. The statistics are horrific. So many young people who end up homeless or in prison.
In England 32% of children leaving care are young people “ageing out” of the system when they reach their 18th birthday. A third are likely to become homeless within the first two years; a quarter of all homeless people are care-experienced. Only 12% of care leavers are in higher education by the age of 23, compared with 42% among the wider population; 39% of care-leavers aged 19-21 are not in education, employment or training – three times the rate of all young people in this age group. Almost half of males under 21 who have contact with the criminal justice system are care-experienced. (Krish Kandiah in this article in The Guardian - Oct 2020)
I’m really keen to know of any charities / social enterprise in the UK or US who are doing good work in this space at scale, particularly in the 16-18 year old range and ideally who have found ways of providing long-term support that reduces the likelihood of prison or homelessness. If you know of anyone in your networks or organisations who do this well (whatever the model), I’d love to hear from you. Thanks!
Thanks for reading. Last week’s newsletter received 480 views with a 69% open rate and the number of subscribers is now at 236. If you read this through a link, rather than by email, I’d love if you could sign up to get it by email. I have a goal to get to 500 email subscribers by the end of the year. Help me out!
I’m in a period of being on the road at the moment, visiting distilleries, funds, charities, family offices and food companies. I’m inspired by those that are building for a better future and I’m enjoying meeting and advising / mentoring / giving connections to people who are: creating social impact in the tequilla industry; reducing the water usage in the gin industry; tackling carbon capture through seaweed; helping children learn about music composed by people from different backgrounds from them; helping adventurous travellers discover amazing places in cities; providing education to children excluded from schooling; building worldviews for future leaders; helping prison leavers to stay out of prison; measuring social impact in new ways; training leaders in combatting modern-day slavery; brewing zero-alcohol beer and helping teenagers mental health, as well as many other great concepts.
Signs of life indeed. Enjoy the rest of your weekend.
Hello. I worked in both Whisky and Alginate (seaweed). Alcohol from seaweed has been done already by Prof Graeme Walker (Abertay Uni, Dundee) and Prof Michelle Stanley (SAMS, Oban) Prof Alan Wolstenholme (International Centre for Brewing and Distilling, Heriot Watt Uni, Edinburgh).