The Weekly Distillation No.65
War; Russia; Iran; Israel; Immortality; Gratitude; NFTs; Fast Maturation; Culture; Mentor Platforms
This newsletter is written for entrepreneurial leaders who want to learn about the moment we are living in but don’t have time to read broadly; who want to grasp the key themes; and who want to create better ways of advancing their mission. The Weekly Distillation covers a broad range of topics with the intent to curate the key narratives of the week, how they fit the broader themes of society and to pose questions that help you to think deeper on the application in your context. You can read more about the key themes I see here.
People once said………..
"I think at some level the future sort of belongs to people who believe in it more than others. I just think we care more, you know. Yeah I think we're the company that cares about helping people connect.” - Mark Zuckerberg @ SXSW and why Meta will win in the Metaverse
“There’s that quote that you die two deaths — when you actually die and the last time someone utters your name. I actually think that we die three deaths: the time when you die, the last time someone utters your name, and the time when the final traces of you are erased from the internet. And that will probably be a really long time for most of us because it’s the internet.” - Suelin Chen
“If the West thinks that Russia will step back, it does not understand Russia,” - Vladimir Putin
“In peace, sons bury their fathers. In war, fathers bury their sons.” - Herodotus
“I am tired and sick of war. Its glory is all moonshine. It is only those who have neither fired a shot nor heard the shrieks and groans of the wounded who cry aloud for blood, for vengeance, for desolation. War is hell.” - William Tecumseh Sherman
“To live without hope is to cease to live.” - Fyodor Dostoevsky
Skim it in a minute
Remembering the pain
War is hell on earth. Children are dying. Look at this and hope it still breaks your heart.
We’re still under-estimating Putin
I only listen to one podcast. I find reading a lot easier and I have noticed my attention span is shot to pieces when it comes to podcasts/video / conferences. The one podcast I listen to is The Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, a DC-based conservative thinktank on geopolitics. It’s a touch too much American exceptionalism for me, but it has brilliant interviews and insights and is very good on Iran. I’ve discussed before how we are buying the narrative that Putin is losing, the war is almost over and that Ukraine is glorious victors already.
The Russians are stalled at points, but the FDD article is a great summary of what the Russians are seeking and how they are doing it. They are reinforcing their forces through greater use of stand-off cruise missile attacks, introducing Armenians, calling on the Kazakhs and potentially shifting forces from the Pacific.
Peace talks continue, but what sort of peace? Putin has laid out his ‘demands’ to Erdogan (ironically a NATO member) - but it feels a bit false. Why settle for Crimea, the Eastern republics, no Ukraine in NATO, and condemnation of the Azov Brigade when he could ask for more? The de-militarisation of Ukraine is 1) rapidly happening (see the attacks in Lviv today for example) and 2) a really bad idea for Ukraine given it has a neighbour that may well invade again.
It’s a nice narrative for NATO that Putin is mad, has Parkinsons, has cancer, is delusional but it doesn’t really fit the facts. Even Erdogan’s spokesman, who was in the room for the call, said that Putin sounded perfectly rational and clear.
I hope I am wrong and that peace breaks out soon but it feels like we are under-estimating Putin. Already you can see the Western media (and hence the population) getting bored with the war, especially when it all sounds like peace.
If you’re about to strike a peace deal, why do you go and ask the Chinese for military aid? China is key to the success of sanctions and is still trying to straddle the fence. The US threatens to sanction China if it supplies Russia but in the current inflationary environment, and with the reliance of global supply chains on China, that is just not credible.
Welcoming the wolf back into the lair
The International Energy Association believes that 3m barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil may disappear from the market by April. To put this into context, the Saudis produce about 7m bpd. The only way that could be replaced in the very near term is if the UAE or Saudis turn up the tap. As I mentioned last week, both aren’t taking Biden’s calls. Desperate times call for desperate measures. Remember the climate crisis? Turns out that the long term death of the planet from global warming is less important to politicians than keeping inflation in fuel down.
First up: attempting to get oil from the Venezuelans. #fail
Second up: The UAE & KSA #fail
Third up. Iran. More below on Iran but it turns out paying off a £400m debt gets you 2 people back and probably a lot of oil back in the market in a few months. And the even bigger prize for Iran, a nuclear deal. #success?
It is amazing, and long overdue that Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe has been freed from prison and is back on UK soil. And the Iranians had a case that the money was theirs, given they paid all the money and only got half the tanks they bought before the revolution put a stop to the UK delivering the rest. Let’s not kid ourselves about what we are about to do though. We are about to welcome back into the global community a country that:
wanted to wipe Israel ‘off the face of the map’
founded, funds and arms Hezbollah which is deemed a terrorist organisation by the West
is one side of a horrific war in Yemen where the Houthi rebels are fighting the Saudi backed Government
Last Sunday fired cruise missiles into Erbil in Northern Iraq, landing close to the US consulate. Apparently targeting a Mossad facility but heavily played down by the US because of the Vienna nuclear talks
Provides weapons, funding and technical expertise to Hamas in Gaza
Provides support to Islamic Jihad in Palestine
It heavily backed Assad in Syria (effectively a client state)
The examples could go on and on. Iran is apparently a beautiful country, full of amazing heritage, brilliant people and so much potential - held back under a regime that exports death, anti-semitism, chaos and revolution.
These are the prices we pay. If I was a leader of Israel, I would be having a long hard think as to how much of a friend and protector the US was right now. I might pop over to DC for a chat.
The end of death
The concept of immortality is an ancient one. I have a birthday this weekend and given I’m well past half of the West of Scotland male’s life expectancy of c.71 years (78 for all of Scotland males), the days being numbered are a real part of life. Did you know that 46 years old is on average the worst year of life?
There are many who seek to solve death (by which they mean the illness and ageing driven deaths, not those caused by pandemics or Putin dropping a bomb on the theatre you are sheltering in). They seem to belong to two approaches - those that believe that technology can fix all ails, and those who believe that we can change the way our bodies work through biology and leave us as immortals. With a market of over $100bn and people such as Jeff Bezos keen to extend the ageing process, there’s no doubt a lot of money is going to get thrown at this space.
Is it a good thing for society to believe that it is possible to create immortality for the masses? Perhaps - but it creates a likely false sense of hope, stops families from having honest conversations about death, leads societies to fail to invest in the right infrastructure and healthcare for their elderly and diminishes the value of the days that we do have.
Modern medicine may be adding years to our lives, but during those years, most of our bodily machines are already well into a state of decay. The years we’re tacking on to the end of life are most commonly years spent bent over and weakened, suffering from osteoporosis and Alzheimer’s and under attack from all forms of cancer. In our pursuit of immortality, we risk becoming like Eos’s Thelonius, blessed with everlasting life, but cursed to eternally age.
Perhaps a better approach might be to live grateful for what we have, knowing it doesn’t last, and consider our mortality and act accordingly. (But seriously, read here about some of the cool projects that are being worked on and here and here and here).
I’ll be spending my birthday with my family and my in-laws, feeling grateful for all I have, glad to not be in Ukraine, thankful for friends and colleagues, for good work and whisky.
The world hasn’t stopped turning
If you want a break from the war (which is an incredible privilege not afforded to the thousands still trapped under bombardment and without food, water and electricity in Mariupol), the world keeps on moving and other stories caught my eye this week:
In the world of whisky, what if ageing didn’t take years and years? I learned today, in a whisky course from the Edinburgh Whisky Academy, that the period until it was legally called whisky was brought about by Lloyd George, a teetotaller who wanted to reduce the effect alcohol was having on the general population who he needed for WW1. So what about accelerated ageing then?
What is special about the brain of an entrepreneur? Highly creative but also very prone to mental health problems.
How to rent a house via an NFT (and a peek into a future where NFTs function as a visual contract.
Protege - backed by Sequoia, just raised $5.8m. It offers a way for anyone to get an exceptional mentor, submit a video to them and get feedback by video. This whole space of monetising advice & mentoring is a big growth space (see Mana and the 18-year-old who just joined them as head of growth promising 500k downloads). I love the idea of breaking down the barriers to the people with the wisdom you need. Also that if you have wisdom then you can monetise it as part of the creator economy.
Finally, a very helpful piece on how to run a diagnostic on your organisation’s culture.
Thanks for reading. Last week’s newsletter received 501 views with a 67% open rate and the number of subscribers is now at 235. This week has been a mix of the good, the bad and the ugly. I’m ready for a break and time with the family. I hope you have a good and restful weekend.