The Weekly Distillation No.56
Web 3.0; DAOs; NFTs; Future of Work; War; Whisky; Mead; Cars; Mind-Reading; Guns
Photo by Bermix Studio on Unsplash
This newsletter is written for entrepreneurial leaders who want to understand the moment we are living in, see the key themes, and create better solutions to advance their mission. I write about a broad range of topics with the connecting questions being - what is happening, what are the trends and what does it mean. You can read more about the key themes I see here.
People once said……..
“I believed implicitly that this was a work event.” - Boris Johnson, UK Prime Minister
“O, what a tangled web we weave when first we practise to deceive!” - Walter Scott
“A man who works with his hands is a laborer; a man who works with his hands and his brain is a craftsman; but a man who works with his hands and his brain and his heart is an artist.” - Louis Nizer
“So much work, energy, and time has gone into creating a trustless distributed consensus mechanism, but virtually all clients that wish to access it do so by simply trusting the outputs from these two companies without any further verification.” - Moxie Marlinspike
“The darkest places in hell are reserved for those who maintain their neutrality in times of moral crisis.” - Dante Alighieri
“Learning and innovation go hand in hand. The arrogance of success is to think that what you did yesterday will be sufficient for tomorrow.” - William Pollard
“Left ear, I wear four earrings. The four is symbolic of the four seasons, spring, winter, summer and fall, the four directions, north, east, south and west, the four gospel writers, Matthew, Mark, Luke and John.” - Mr. T
Skim it in a (few) minutes
Web 3.0
It’s easy to be a hater on Web 3.0 right now - but Moxie’s analysis of the failings of the infrastructure (API calls not being validated, only 2 companies being the interaction between the client and the blockchain) are a good critique. It seems that most money is here for the potential returns rather than a purist pursuit of decentralisation at all costs. Does that mean the reality will always fail to live up to the ideals? Well, if it did wouldn’t it just be following exactly in the steps of Web 1.0 and Web 2.0? That doesn’t mean it’s an overall bad thing for the world - or that you can’t make a lot of money or interesting business models in it.
This article by the very smart Albert Wenger (a top VC) resonated with me - making the argument that what makes Web 3.0 different is that it separates out the database. He describes Google as a database of search queries and traffic; Amazon as a database of goods and purchase histories; Facebook as a database of profiles, friend graphs and status updates. Paypal as a database of account balances. If blockchain tech can separate the ownership of the database from large corporates, this enables incredible innovation and removes to a gated approach to data access. I’d counter that this is great - but if we just move the gateway to wallets, API calls, exchanges - then are we any better off?
Whilst Blockchain tech, cryptocurrency and DeFi/DApps is all interesting, much of my discussions this week have been around NFTs and DAOs. I still think DAOs are the game change ultimately - they’re still in very early development phase and the audience is too techy and too limited an application case. I had a fascinating conversation this morning about whether you could create a DAO with no legal jurisdiction, no tax jurisdiction and no employees.
In the NFT world, the story of China and Land in the metaverse is fascinating. People are piling in to buy land in digital games and worlds. Gold rush? Or Fool’s gold? NFTs remain the most debated part of Web 3.0 and yet the merits of originality, exclusive access, fractional ownership and a store of value may give them a long term play.
The future of work looks a lot the same and also completely different
Our attention span is shrinking (and here’s why) to a point where you can only now focus for 65 seconds. I’m looking forward to future CPD sessions that last for 65 seconds. How do you teach, lead, negotiate and relate to people that can only focus for 65 seconds? I lost your focus 2 sentences back, didn’t I?
Coinbase announced that it will shut most functions during 2022 for four separate weeks,to enable its employees to rest and recharge. I commend the aspiration - but it begs the question as to why they couldn’t just give the employees four more weeks vacation time? Obviously the US culture of not taking all your vacation time plays in - but would you want your employer telling you which weeks you could have of not working? And is there any possibility that anyone would then take additional vacation time over the year?
This one is on my list to read still (and we might come back to it) - the Andreesen Horowitz view on how DAOs will change the future of work.
The opening sentence - “In the future, it’s likely that the average person will not work for a company.”
How’s dry January going for you?
My drinks network has been getting excited by the launch of the UK-India trade tariff negotiations. Honestly - if this comes off I have heard it said there is not enough single malt whisky in Scotland to meet the likely demand. Here’s how the Indians are reporting the talks. My grandfather was born in India and so I once looked up to see if I could play for India at football but it turns out not as he was born there pre-independence. Hey ho. Anyway, those getting excited on tariffs might do well to read the story of Cairn Energy and its efforts to agree a refinery and the twists and tales and length of time (as well as their subsequent tax dispute). Here’s hoping this trade agreement is simpler - albeit the quid pro quo for Indian tech visas will be a hard sell in some quarters.
You know when you go through duty free and might be tempted to buy a bottle? Well, somebody just threw down 488,000 Euros for a bottle of Yamakazi 55 in Istanbul Airport duty free.
Hang on to your empty bottles of top shelf whisky - criminals are paying up so they can refill them with cheap liquid and sell them. I’ve just finished The Girl From Oslo on Netflix (set mostly in Israel). So this article reviewing a new premium Israeli whiskey caught my eye. I also got an introduction to a startup in South Africa focusing on Mead, with the aim of tackling the water crisis in the Cape - with Cape Town pretty close to running out of potable water this is no theoretical issue - and I’m looking forward to learning more. And finally, how a bottle of whiskey is stopping a war (an old story but a good and ongoing one).
How technology is changing our world
After a bad week for our car, and a lunch with a key figure in the industry, I have been looking at subscription services for cars, such as this one from Volvo. A modest innovation from a finance lease but still customer centric - but unleashes a massive war for who ends up holding the customer. Does every dealership disappear? Is this the solution until the infrastructure for Electric cars arrives in spades? I’m yet to meet anyone who thinks you absolutely have to get an electric car as your next car.
The Chinese have built robots that can read your mind with 96% accuracy. If you don’t see the downsides of this - imagine if in your next work meeting everyone can read your mind. Or the presentation. Or an interview. The technology is far from perfect - but another sign of a state comfortable with using technology to monitor people (and control?).
The rising geopolitical pressures
Countries that have loaded up on China debt are starting to show stresses. Sri Lanka is the latest, asking for a restructure. Mind you, China isn’t the only one suffering there - Sri Lanka recently agreed to pay off $251m of debt with Iran in tea.
Photo by Markus Winkler on Unsplash
In a lot of January 2022 conversations I’ve been sharing hopes for the year. Occasionally (for amusement) I test out my bear case thesis (not my central case) that goes as follows:
The world has over-stocked in response to supply chain issues and anticipation of stronger Covid bounce backs. 2022 sees at least 6 months of de-stocking
Which leads to slower economic growth in the producing nations and additional stress on the financial burdens (property lending)
Higher unemployment and rising inflation (beyond levels many workers can remember) leads to cost of living stress and political unrest in the West
Russia invades Ukraine and the West retaliates in a way that escalates rapidly to boots on the ground
Quantitative easing is reigned back, reversing the pumping of money into financial and physical assets
We see a financial market collapse with the rise of risk on, high inflation, rising taxation and slowing economic growth. High valuations in everything unwind rapidly
Covid mutates into a horrible worse virus but only a minority are prepared to take more vaccines or live under restrctions. Vaccine passports spread widely but vaccine fatigue (Vaxtigue as an early vote for word of 2022) means low takeup.
China invades Taiwan
Interest rates rise rapidly in an attempt to control inflation - slowing economic growth and we all start paying a lot more on our debts
North Korea………….who knows!
This is NOT a prediction. But I think it’s helpful to look at the vast range of things that could go wrong this year and realise it’s not a one way bet. Here’s hoping that none of these happen. At a time when there’s low trust in many of the leaders of Western countries, we lack the confidence in the institutions that might be needed in moments like this.
So - the Pentagon is calling Russia out for a false flag operation in Ukraine (and possibly in Transnistria also. Ukraine is attributing today’s cyber attack to Russia. Before Christmas officials felt that if an invasion was coming then it would come in January. CSIS has a great deep dive analysis on Russia’s objectives, the likely military axis of attack and what NATO can and should do.
Culture going to pot? Time to weapon up?
Cannabis addiction is up in the over 55s. One expert said “'I think we're now 100 per cent sure that cannabis is one of the causes of a schizophrenia-like psychosis.”
And to finish. Have a read of this article from The Heritage Foundation arguing that guns are a necessary part of self defence. If you’re in the US, you may not get my point. If you’re in the UK you’ll probably swallow your tea. Are we heading for civil war in the US is one of my frequent conversations with US contacts these days. I heard this week of one family (friend of a friend) who have just bought full body armour for the whole family. Enjoy the read!
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