The Weekly Distillation No.26
Vaccines, Office Parties, Panorama; Management, Cartels, AI, China, Whisky
This newsletter is written for entrepreneurial organisational leaders and aims to help identify themes of our current context and provide questions, tips and tools that can help in navigating these times.
“We will also remove conspiracy theories about Covid-19 vaccines that we know today are false.” - Facebook
“I guess the point I’m trying to make is that as a species we’re just no good at writing obituaries. We don’t know how a man or his achievements will be perceived three generations from now, any more than we know what his great-great-grandchildren will be having for breakfast on a Tuesday in March. Because when Fate hands something down to posterity, it does so with one hand behind its back.” - Richard Vanderwhile in A Gentleman in Moscow
"We were hiding, and we were like everyone else under our desks. Then we've realized, wait a minute, we can succeed through this." - Marc Benioff, Salesforce
“At the 11th hour, the EU is bringing new elements into the negotiation. A breakthrough is still possible in the next few days but that prospect is receding.” - UK Government spokesman
"If we can get through phase one [of the priority list] and it is a highly effective vaccine and there is very, very high up take, then we could in theory take out 99% of hospitalisations and deaths related to Covid 19”. - Professor Jonathan Van Tam, Deputy Chief Medical Officer for England
“Life in a prison cell may well be compared to Advent; one waits, hopes, and does this, that, or the other- things that are of no real consequence- the door is shut, and can be opened only from the outside." - Dietrech Bonhoeffer - Letters from Prison
Coronavirus
This is what a lockdown does - a 30% drop in Coronavirus cases from just 2 weeks closing down. It’s suppression, not removal - but when you have limited spare hospital capacity, one of the least healthy populations in Europe and a high % of people over 65, you have very limited options.It buys time until the vaccine(s) are widely available across the nation.
In the business world we are starting to see organisations going risk-on again ahead of an anticipated 2021 recovery. I am hearing of hiring decisions being taken that were previously on pause, of investment decisions being considered again that were off the table and of people looking for upside in their projections for next year as they anticipate shackles being taken off consumer spending and business investment. Of course that is not everywhere in the economy - the pain is hitting hard in retail (see the collapse of Debenhams and 12,000 potential job losses) and in hospitality (there are only so many times you can bridge finance your way through a year).
The first vaccinations will begin in Scotland next week. Things will be rough for a few weeks but there is light at the end of the tunnel. This week I’ve been reflecting on advent. Waiting and light seem apt metaphors for the run up to mass vaccinations.
The Future of Work
Photo by Thought Catalog on Unsplash
Enthusiasm for office Christmas parties this year is low, as so many of them will be via Zoom. Say bah humbug and try and get out of it.
We’re all looking forward to working somewhere else in 2021 but it seems unlikely to be full time in the office. I’m missing a commute - both to get me out of the house more than the 10 mins I have averaged over the last 3 days and also to have a winddown between an intense end of day work call and being fully present with my family at the dinner table.
When you get back to the office, or your place of work, you may find your employer is using AI & security cameras to track your covid-rules compliance as well as your productivity.
Is your employer going to require proof that you have been vaccinated before you can return to the office? Politically controversial, and mandates vaccines by the back door (imagine the disadvantages of not being able to fly for a work trip when your colleagues can), I can see the merits of this being rolled out. However, given opt-in for tracking technology was so low it seems unlikely to see widespread takeup.
I’ve been coaching a business leader since October who runs a community interest company that provides employee wellbeing support to businesses of 50-250 people across the UK. It’s not my field so I was interested to read this article in Harvard Business Review about how to manage someone whose life has been upended. There has been a lot of trauma and loss for some this year and recognising that, caring for the employee and adapting the organisation to new realities must be the right way to go.
McKinsey has carried out a large study of what the future for remote work is.
If you need a break, here’s how to ignore your boss. Or, how to buy yourself that necessary downtime to recharge so you are able to work sustainably.
How Technology is shaping our future
Like chicken McNuggets? In the not-to-distant future they might be lab grown. Synthetic meat will be one of the big trends in food of the next decade given the obvious environmental benefits - and profit margins.
Even the cartels are getting in on TikTok, as a recruitment, promotion and marketing channel.
It’s possible that drones made by the Chinese and sold by the UAE are now being lent to Ethiopia in its war against Tigray. A classic example of when you unleash a destructive technology on the world, it is almost impossible to stop proliferation.
What are the ethics of constructing avatars and a digital personna from social media and other online info on a person who has died, in an attempt to keep their “presence” alive? Is this another example of the tech world continuing to believe we can beat death?
AI is sexist, racist, backward looking and decidedly unprogressive. Why? Because it relies on datasets that reflect these biases. If AI is to find widespread acceptance, this conundrum of datasets needs resolved.
When AWS went down (partially) for several hours last week, a lot of people woke up to how central it is to the technology infrastructure we live on. Being in the cloud is one thing - but when most of your cloud apps are powered by AWS you have a critical infrastructure risk, despite how many global servers and backups they have.
A long read for the weekend
China remains the story of the 21st century. Will it continue to grow? Can it migrate to a political democracy? Can it overcome its demographic headaches of rapid ageing? Can it rescue itself from environmental disaster? Will it be a financial boon to the emerging world or a evil colonial master? Will it be a kleptocracy or a meritocracy? Will it remain narrowly focused or seek global dominion, particularly of the waves?
It also has some of the most innovative and successful technology companies in the world. What are its plans for how it leverages its digital strengths? This article from Brookings lays out a grand narrative for that strategy - to be a CAAP, a country as a platform.
The other weekly distillation
“the action of purifying a liquid by a process of heating and cooling.”
In 1911 Malcolm Macleod was born. He was the son of a sailor and was born in Glasgow. As his father was often away, Malcolm - or Calum as the Gaelic of his name is, moved to the Isle of Rasaay, a small island that sits between mainland Scotland and the Isle of Skye.
On the Isle of Rasaay there were two ends - the end where people lived at and then the land that had been cleared for sheep, with a handful of people living at the far end (the North). There was no road between the two. Locals campaigned for a road to be built but when this fell on deaf ears, Calum did what any good Scotsman would do - he got his pickaxe, a shovel, a wheelbarrow and some dynamite (via the Dept of Agriculture, along with some skilled people to blast) and went off to build it himself.
Over ten years he build c.2 miles of road - enough to bring the connection he needed. He was granted a British Empire Medal for his service and was commemorated in the great book “Calum’s road”.
A more recent development has been the launch of the Isle of Rasaay Distillery by Alasdair Day and Bill Dobbie. I haven’t had the pleasure of meeting Alasdair but I like and have a lot of respect for Bill - an experienced and successful technology entrepreneur and investor, he has a very innovative and insightful approach to route to market in a traditional industry. It’s apparently a great visit and you can stay at the distillery. One for a post Covid trip.
The distillery recently launched its new single malt, a limited edition (7500 bottles) inaugural release. If you are into bottles you’ll notice the continued influence of the Isle of Harris gin approach - the local aspects (fossils & rocks from Rasaay) in the glass, the cork and sturdy nature of the bottle. Knowing how much Harris pay to buy their bottles, I’m guessing this is not a cheap piece of glass. If you’re into the wood, this will matured in first-fill Tennessee whiskey casks and finished in first-fill Bordeaux red wine casks . It comes in at a punchy 52% ABV and retails at £99 for a 70cl bottle.
There’s virtually no chance you’ll get your hands on a bottle of this given how fast it sold, as well as the hefty pre-sale and deliveries to distributors. But there will no doubt be another release along soon.
Congratulations to Bill & Alasdair. Here’s hoping a future release will be named Calum Macleod.
Tasting Note by the Master of Malt
“Nose: Dried cherry, lemon cheesecake, soft mineral-forward smoke and subtly oaky cinnamon. Palate: Toffee, red apple, another helping of cherry, salted butter on nutty brown bread. Finish: Creamy butterscotch and vanilla last.”