The Weekly Distillation No.25
Maradona; Coronavirus; Authoritarianism; Working Parents; Asset Inflation; Christmas; Geopolitics; Venture Capital; Vermouth
Photo by Jack Hunter on Unsplash
This newsletter is written for entrepreneurial organisational leaders and aims to help identify themes of our current context and provide questions, tips and tools that can help in navigating these times.
“Let her and Falsehood grapple; who ever knew Truth put to the worse in a free and open encounter?” ― John Milton, Areopagitica
"In September 2001, after an unnecessary international war with Ethiopia, half the Eritrean cabinet wrote to the president, Isaias Afwerki, asking him to think again about his autocratic style of government. He thought about it and imprisoned them all." — Paul Collier, The Bottom Billion
“What we must tackle is Islamist separatism. A conscious, theorized, political-religious project is materializing through repeated deviations from the Republic’s values, which is often reflected by the formation of a counter-society as shown by children being taken out of school, the development of separate community sporting and cultural activities serving as a pretext for teaching principles which aren’t in accordance with the Republic’s laws. It’s indoctrination and, through this, the negation of our principles, gender equality and human dignity. The problem is this ideology, which claims that its own laws are superior to the Republic’s. And as I’ve often said, I’m not asking any of our citizens to believe or not believe, or believe a little or moderately – that’s none of the Republic’s business. I’m asking every citizen, of all religions and none, to abide wholeheartedly by all the Republic’s laws. And in this radical Islamism – since this is at the heart of the matter let’s talk about it and name it – a proclaimed, publicized desire, a systematic way of organizing things to contravene the Republic’s laws and create a parallel order, establish other values, develop another way of organizing society which is initially separatist, but whose ultimate goal is to take it over completely. And this is gradually resulting in the rejection of the freedom of expression, freedom of conscience and the right to blaspheme, and in us becoming insidiously radicalized.” - French President Emmanuel Macron
“It was scored a little bit with the head of Diego and a little with the hand of God. - Diego Maradona
"They should be careful or their eyes will be plucked out. The Chinese never make trouble and are never afraid of anything," Zhao Lijian, Chinese Foreign Ministry
“The world does not organize itself. American leadership, backed by clear goals and sound strategies, is necessary to effectively address the defining global challenges of our time.” Joebiden.com
“While we humans like to think of ourselves as wildly diverse, any alien coming to Earth and systematically cataloging its life forms would find us singularly boring.” - – Juan Enriquez
Coronavirus
I’m fascinated by what 2020 has shown up about our values as society. Apparently we value our kids getting out of our hair (keep schools open), getting away (unlock for summer holidays) and being with others to celebrate Christmas (the great get away). On everything else we seem pretty split. Is the party time being allowed at Christmas dangerous? (Yes). Is it politics? (Yes) Will it lead to a more grim January? (Yes) Will we regret it? (Yes) Will it bring a lot of joy and hope and mental health in tough times? (Yes) We’re heading to Northern Ireland for the period and will be delighted to be with family again.
Don’t want the vaccine? Someone thinks that getting paid £25 will change your mind. Any anti-vaxxer I know wouldn’t shift for that. £25m maybe.
How anti-vaxx undermined any prospect of herd immunity
There’s a need for a better PR strategy for vaccines
Merryn thinks you can value a life (and hence lockdown merits) in monetary terms. This is academically correct, morally repugnant and practically useless - in cases of death, stats are useless at an individual level - you’re either 100% dead or 0% dead - being 50% dead across a population of 2 tells you not very much.
The Future of Work
HSBC is going to let 30,000 employees continue to work from home 4 days a week
Paypal is going to let its employees get paid daily instead of monthly. This seems radical but in a digitised era, there’s no reason why you couldn’t get paid by the nano-second.
We just can’t get away from work - most people I know are working well into the evenings on a regular basis. I think this reflects the lack of engaging alternatives and our addiction to screens.
A better way forward for working parents
We’re in an Asset Inflation Bubble
Housing markets around the world remain on a tear - higher savings, short-term tax incentives, move to rural economies, work from home, low mortgage rates, QE.
America’s zombie companies now have $1 trillion of debt
We’re going to inflate away our debts, despite all the chat of tax rises and capital gains tax increasing
Growing Authoritarianism and Limits to Free Speech
Macron’s speech, even within the context of France, was fascinating for its direct attack on a form of free speech. In essence, you can believe what you want, but it will become subservient to what we hold to be true as a nation and what our laws are. You can have free speech but it will be limited by the state.
Even progressives are finding they are being bullied, excluded or de-platformed when it comes to gender
Trump is not the last authoritarian leader America will give power to
Biden is just a transition President before another Trump type victor
The UK is rolling out GCHQ (the UK equivalent of the NSA) to tackle anti vaccine propaganda.
What would happen if you combined AI & a Totalitarian regime? It wouldn’t be pretty.
The rising geopolitical threat
Photo by Boston Public Library on Unsplash
It’s ok everyone, America is back to lead again. Now all the problems can go away. Actually it’s about to get worse. Biden seems to be less anti-Iran, more anti-Saudi (just when the Israelis are becoming friends), less likely to stand up to China, nowhere clear on North Korea, silent on Ethiopia, withdrawing from fighting Al Qaeda, and more predictable than Trump.
Iran
The Iran Deal was pretty good for Iran. A deal that gave them a lot of benefits from a temporary stop to enriching Uranium, enabled them to buy conventional arms again, didn’t stop their regional aspirations and had sunset clauses in it to ensure it wasn’t a permanent commitment - it’s not surprising they kept at it, even whilst secretly they broke it. US President to be Biden plans to step back into it. This is a win for Iran and, whilst it avoids an immediate US/Iran war scenario, it does nothing for regional stability or peace. Meanwhile Iran keeps using Westerners as hostages and bargaining chips.
Ethiopia
Civil war is kicking off in Ethiopia.
North Korea
What to do if you are Kim? Trump gave you airtime, a chance to negotiate - but also a sense of he might actually push the button to attack. With China not wanting US forces or South Korea closer to its border, it seems likely China will continue to control the craziness but also to prop up the regime. Maybe it will take an underground resistance to make it change.
UK
We’re storing up our last few £ to buy robot soldiers.
China
The trade war with the US continues - will this ease? China is continuing its verbal and diplomatic spats with Australia. Four pro-democracy lawmakers were forced to resign as HK continues to be stripped of its one nation, two systems approach. Threats were issued to the UK and the other four members of the Five Eyes.
Islamic Terrorism
Fifty people were beheaded in Mozambique by terrorists linked to Islamic State. France kicked it up a notch with Macron’s speech on Republican values.
World
The birth rate of the world is falling - and it’s going to get worse. Time to reconsider transhumanism?
USA
Voters for President Trump don’t believe that Biden won the election. This is not even close - it’s a 97/3 survey result. One nation, two narratives.
#Respect for Maradona
Diegeo Armando Maradona - villain, hero, addict, bringer of joy, creator and destroyer. 1986 was so special. #RIP. Thanks for the memories.
But tell me this….who would you rather have in your team, Maradona of 86 or the HUMAN SEAL? #lafoquinha
A long read for the weekend
Photo by Jp Valery on Unsplash
Without venture capital we wouldn’t have had Amazon, Facebook, Google, Slack, Stripe, Hubspot, Airbnb, Transferwise or Spotify. And yet a model that is predicated on a tiny fraction of investment providing an exceptional multiple that creates an exceptional return on average, whilst largely ignoring the other investments, is hardly one that attributes high dignity to all humans. In a drive for outsized returns, the focus is on growth, even if loss making, to plateau at a higher level and generate the cashflow at that point. But is it good for society? This article in the New Yorker looks at how VC is deforming capitalism.
The other weekly distillation
“the action of purifying a liquid by a process of heating and cooling.”
This week’s review is another classic from my friend Jared who lives in Denver, CO.
“The first sip of any Manhattan and I instantly recall my first. Ironically, a Manhattan in London. In a basement bar on Beauchamp Place in Knightsbridge. What I didn’t know until years later, was the name of the magic potion that made that Manhattan so memorable. It was vermouth; specifically Carpano Antica Formula. It was the original vermouth trade marked by Antonio Benedetto Carpano in 1786. I recall the oversized green bottle being lifted and poured into the crystal mixing glass. I see the antiqued yellow label, a replica of the original, that has valiantly ignored all marketing edits for over 200 years. It is widely agreed upon that Antica Formula is the gold standard of vermouths. Although often challenged and creatively contrasted, it is never replaced in making one the founding fathers of cocktails, the Manhattan.
Vermouth is a fortified wine, or better understood as an aperitif. The root of the word aperitif is Latin and means “to open”. Aperitifs are known for their bittersweet quality that persuasively arouse the appetite. According to European law, all vermouths music contain three ingredients - wine, wormwood, and a fortifying spirit. At the foundation of vermouth is the grape. Wherever there has been wine, there has been vermouth. Vermouth was a way to repurpose grapes not suitable for the vintage. Vermouth is required by law to be composed of at least 75% wine, with an ABV between 14.5% and 22%. The unique combination of herbal, sweet, and bitter is what makes vermouth a perfect partner to so many spirits and create the beautiful complexity of a cocktail.
A spectacular vermouth like Antica Formula is like having a high quality lens on a film camera. The camera body is important to be sure; but as any photographer will confirm, it is the quality of the glass that provides crystal clear focus resulting in beautiful images. Without good glass you end up with soft edges, lack of contrast, and never able to capture the moments full spectrum. Similarly, using a vermouth absent of richness or depth, even with the most expensive of spirits, will never result in the anticipated outcome. But use a high quality, beautiful vermouth and even the most difficult spirits to capture are brought into a sharp, contrasting, and memorable moment.
To enjoy Antica Formula only mixed in a cocktail is to miss the rich history and depth of it on it’s own. In keeping with over 200 years of the Carpano tradition, only three people hold the secrets behind the production and recipe of Antica Formula. What is known is its bouquet is filled with unmistakable notes of vanilla harvested from Madagascar and Tahiti and its saffron, one of the most exclusive and expensive spices as approximately 150,000 flowers are required to obtain one kilogram, comes from Iran. Finally, the wormwood from the Piedmont Alps gives Antica Formula its unmistakable herbatious pedigree.
The well worn advice on the role of vermouth in cocktails is this, “If bitters is pepper, bringing a bit of spice to any drink, then vermouth might just be the salt that makes all the flavors shine.” If you are going to have one salt shaker in your kitchen, have Carpano Antica Formula. Every Manhattan, or any other cocktail you pour with it will be richer and better because of it.
I’d like to raise a glass to Carpano Antica Formula. Because it didn’t change its ancient yellow label or its centuries old recipe, I along with millions of others, enjoyed the brown beauty of a Manhattan with all the clarity, color, and beauty it was created to be.”
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